The long-running conflict threatening to throw world nations
into proxy warfare in Yemen seems to be winding down, as officials announced
a ceasefire, planned for Nov. 17.
Last week, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said both
sides have agreed to observe a “cessation of hostilities” in the region.
The Yemen war has been going on for over a year, but the
United States did not become directly involved until after military sources
claimed rebel positions fired on a U.S. warship offshore, and American forces
returned fire.
Many experts characterize the conflict as a fight between
Sunni and Shia Muslims, two different factions that have been involved in violent
altercations all over the region, especially in recent years: for example, in
the aftermath of the U.S. war in Iraq.
However, other factors also come into
play, with both Saudi Arabia and Iran backing different sides to promote
their respective influence in the region.
In announcing the Yemen ceasefire, Kerry said the parties
have agreed to work toward establishing a new national unity government in a
safe and secure Sanaa by the end of the year.
However, after the announcement, Foreign Minister of
Yemen Abdel-Malek al-Mekhlafi went on record saying that the ceasefire
announcement “means nothing” — and demanding that rebels should lay
down arms first.
A Nov.
16 article in Eurasia Review cited al-Mekhlafi as saying that the
ceasefire presented by the U.S. “rewards bad behavior” on the part of the
Houthis, essentially making it clear that the existing government is not ready
to negotiate.
“The government of Yemen is not aware of the statements made
by Mr. Kerry and does not consider itself committed to them,” Al-Mekhlafi
said, according to the news release.
The claim that this key stakeholder was
cut out of the loop undercuts the effectiveness of the deal and throws into
question some of the ongoing diplomatic efforts around bringing the Yemen civil
war to a close.
Speaking to the Gulf News Journal Thursday, Oya Dursun-Ozkanca explained some
of the further dynamics around the tense situation. Dursun-Ozkanca is an associate professor of political science and director of the international studies minor
at Elizabethtown College, Pennsylvania.
“Houthi rebels and the Saudi coalition support the announced
ceasefire,” Dursun-Ozkanca said. “It remains to be seen how much the Yemeni
government will resist the ceasefire, given the fact that they are backed by
the Saudi coalition.”
The conditions on the ground are dire, Dursun-Ozkanca said, and necessitate some form of resolution.
“Food, medical and other supplies are scarce, and the risk
of infection and disease is prevalent,” the professor said. “The international community is in a
desperate situation to take measures to stop the ongoing violence.”
Releases from the United Nations Office for
the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs show that approximately 13.6
million people are in need of life-saving humanitarian assistance, both in terms of food and security.
At least 100 international humanitarian partners have been
working across the country; however, of the total requested funding of $1.8 billion, only
about a quarter has been received.
