In the aftermath of a surprise American election upset, many questions have come up about how the enormously important political outcome
will affect world markets.
Some of these questions are reflected in the news emerging from
GCC countries, which have to read the tea leaves on diplomacy, energy policy and much more.
A somewhat cryptic
release on Middle Eastern press site Zawya.com shows a UAE
official remarking on a Donald Trump win’s possible effect on oil prices.
“The election of Trump will move the oil prices more
than any statement by anyone,” United Arab Emirates Energy Minister,
Suhail Al Mazrouei said in an Abu Dhabi press conference.
“That is the nature of this market: it is sensitive
for information,” Al Mazrouei said, according to Zawya.
A remark like this one begs the
question of exactly how the election result could or will move oil prices.
Meanwhile, after a crash and stop-gap automatic shutdown of commodities trading
Tuesday evening U.S. time, the markets have rebounded, with a surge upward in
U.S. stock indices that continues to rise.
To get some insight on the future of world markets with
Trump as U.S. president-elect, Gulf News Journal spoke with Dr. Kyle Kopko Thursday.
Kopko is associate professor of political science and director of the pre-law program at Elizabethtown College in Pennsylvania.
Kopko is also
co-author of “The VP Advantage: How Running Mates Influence Home State Voting
in Presidential Elections.” He has contributed to news outlets like CNN,
C-SPAN, FoxNews, CBC, Business News Network, Huffington Post, The New York Times,
Wall Street Journal, Washington Post and Newsweek.
“I could see (oil prices) going either way,” Kopko said.
“There are a variety of actions that Trump could take that would affect the
supply of oil.”
For example, discussion of possible military
intervention in the Middle East could cause a price spike.
On the other hand, Kopko believes bullishness on U.S. oil
production could have a different effect, noting that Trump’s track record on
climate change makes it reasonable to expect changes in U.S. policy related to energy initiatives.
As for world markets in general, Kopko said the world will
simply have to wait and see.
“A lot is going to depend on the tone, rhetoric and policy
positions of Trump,” he said.
For instance, any discussion of trade barriers or
aggressive language about the financial actions of other countries could damage
trade relations.
In general, it seems that world leaders in nations all over
the globe will have to look carefully at the conversations coming out of the
White House after January to get an idea of where the new administration stands.
A Reuters
press release Wednesday chronicled the response of world markets “rattled”
by the election; however, at press time, the Dow Jones recorded a record high — nearing 19,000.
